Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
