Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
